Telemus Weekly Market Review

December 25 – December 29, 2017

The S&P 500 settled the holiday-shortened week down 0.36% and only because of a sell-off in the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday. The remarkable thing is that there was a 19-point variance between the high and low for the week, both of which were logged on Friday. In other words, it was an extremely range-bound market that lacked conviction on the part of buyers and sellers until the last 30 minutes on Friday. That lack of conviction was plain to see in the volume totals at the NYSE, which were among the lightest all year. The other major indexes also lost ground this week with the Dow ending down 0.14% and the Nasdaq lost 0.81%

It was no surprise as this is a popular vacation week, and with the stock market having done so well already in 2017, many participants undoubtedly felt comfortable following pursuits that didn’t include buying or selling stocks.

It is fair to say they didn’t miss much. The corporate news was very limited. The headline item for the week in that respect included Apple, which declined 3.3% and closed just below its 50-day simple moving average during a week when many other stocks didn’t move much.

Apple’s difficulties stemmed from press reports on Tuesday which highlighted some analysts’ concerns about iPhone X demand possibly being weaker than expected in the company’s fiscal first quarter. Separately, Apple had some PR issues to deal with, which subsequently led to an apology from the company pertaining to the battery performance of its older iPhone models.

It would be remiss not to add that AAPL had a great 2017, increasing 46%, so it isn’t unreasonable to think it might have been subjected to some profit taking at year end anyway. The aforementioned headlines, though, helped in that regard.

The livelier trading action took place outside the stock market. Bitcoin was the picture of volatility; the 10-yr Treasury yield came in eight basis points to 2.41%, ending the year roughly where it started; oil prices increased 3.1% to $60.27 per barrel, marking their highest close since 2015; gold prices jumped 2.4% to $1309.20/troy oz.; and the U.S. Dollar Index slumped 1.1% to 92.30

Economic data was limited and on the mixed side, yet the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December created some fanfare on Thursday with its best print since March 2011, led by a three-and-a-half year high for the New Orders Index and a 34-year high for the Production Index.

Within the stock market, the lightly-weighted real estate sector topped the list of winners with a 1.3% gain for the week. Price returns for the remaining ten sectors ranged from -1.0% for information technology to 0.3% for utilities.

As a reminder, the stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday for the New Year’s Day holiday and will re-open on Tuesday. Happy New Year!

January 1 – January 5 Economic Calendar

  • Monday
  • New Years Day
  • Redbook
    8:55 AM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending
    10:00 AM ET
  • FOMC Minutes
    2:00 PM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report
    10:30 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    11:00 AM ET
  • James Bullard Speaks
    1:30 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Tuesday
  • PMI Manufacturing Index
    9:45 AM ET

  • Redbook
    8:55 AM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending
    10:00 AM ET
  • FOMC Minutes
    2:00 PM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report
    10:30 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    11:00 AM ET
  • James Bullard Speaks
    1:30 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Wednesday
  • MBA Mortgage Applications
    7:00 AM ET
  • Redbook
    8:55 AM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending
    10:00 AM ET
  • FOMC Minutes
    2:00 PM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report
    10:30 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    11:00 AM ET
  • James Bullard Speaks
    1:30 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Thursday
  • Challenger Job-Cut Report
    7:30 AM ET

  • ADP Employment Report
    8:15 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims
    8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report
    10:30 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    11:00 AM ET
  • James Bullard Speaks
    1:30 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Friday
  • Employment Situation
    8:30 AM ET

  • International Trade
    8:30 AM ET
  • Factory Orders
    10:00 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Patrick Harker Speaks
    10:15 AM ET
  • Loretta Mester Speaks on Saturday
    10:15 AM ET
  • Loretta Mester Speaks
    12:30 PM ET
  • Baker-Hughes Rig Count
    1:00 PM ET
  • Treasury STRIPS
    3:00 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This market commentary is a matter of opinion and is for informational purposes only.  It is not intended as investment advice and does not address or account for individual investor circumstances.  Investment decisions should always be made based on the client’s specific financial needs, goals and objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance.  The statements contained herein are based solely upon the opinions of Telemus Capital, LLC.  All opinions and views constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. Information was obtained from third party sources, which we believe to be reliable, but not guaranteed.