Telemus Weekly Market Review

June 19 – June 23, 2017

After some wavering at the start of the week, the S&P 500 settled into a sideways trend, as investors lacked conviction to decisively move the market one way or the other. In the end, the benchmark index sealed its second-consecutive weekly win with a slim gain of 0.21%. The Dow fared worse, up only 0.05% while the Nasdaq was the big winner for the week, up 1.84%.

Wall Street kicked off the week on a positive note with both the S&P 500 and the Dow advancing to new all-time highs. The Nasdaq exhibited relative strength as technology and biotechnology stocks outperformed, bucking their recent bearish trends, with names like Apple and Biogen leading the charge. Financials also posted a solid performance, continuing their bullish two-week run.

The tide turned on Tuesday as the benchmark index coughed up nearly Monday’s entire advance. The energy sector finished at the bottom of the leaderboard, for the second day in a row, as crude oil continued to tumble amid excess supply concerns. However, despite the bearish tone, biotechnology stocks kept chugging along, pushing the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF higher by 1.3%.

Range-bound action set in on Wednesday as the heavily-weighted health care and technology sectors upheld the S&P 500 amid weakness in the broader market. Staying true to the week’s trend, biotech companies were bullish, advancing the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF higher by 4.1%, while crude oil was bearish, dropping another 2.3%, despite a relatively upbeat inventory report from the Department of Energy.

Investors shifted their attention to Washington on Thursday as the Senate rolled out its version of the healthcare reform bill. Compared to the version that the House passed last month, the Senate’s version would roll back the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion more gradually, but the cuts to Medicaid would be larger in total. However, in general, the two versions of the bill are very similar.

The health care sector took the news in stride, moving higher by 1.1%, but the S&P 500 settled slightly lower as the financials, consumer staples, and utilities sectors weighed. Crude oil did manage to secure its first win of the week, but the advance was modest in comparison to the commodity’s recent swoon. Moving into Friday’s session, the energy component held a week-to-date loss of 4.5%.

Equities ended the week on a positive note as the technology and energy sectors fended off the negatively-charged financials, consumer discretionary, and health care groups. Biotech stocks fell to some profit-taking efforts early, but the IBB still managed to pull out a win, ending the week higher by 9.6%. Crude oil registered another modest win on Friday, but ended the week at $43.17, lower by almost 4.0% from last Friday’s close.

Market participants altered their rate-hike expectations a bit this week following comments from several FOMC voters, including Fed Vice Chair Fischer, Fed Governor Powell, New York Fed President Dudley, Chicago Fed President Evans, and Dallas Fed President Kaplan.

The fed funds futures market now points to the December FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 51.3%, up from last week’s 43.4%. The 10 year U.S. Treasury end the week at 2.14% down nearly 6 basis points from last weeks close.

June 26 – June 30 Economic Calendar

  • Monday
  • John C. Williams Speaks
    1:10 AM ET
  • Durable Goods Orders
    8:30 AM ET
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index
    8:30 AM ET
  • Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
    10:30 AM ET
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • State Street Investor Confidence Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Patrick Harker Speaks
    11:15 AM ET
  • Neel Kashkari Speaks
    5:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Tuesday
  • John C. Williams Speaks
    4:05 AM ET

  • Redbook
    8:55 AM ET
  • S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
    9:00 AM ET
  • Consumer Confidence
    10:00 AM ET
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • State Street Investor Confidence Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Patrick Harker Speaks
    11:15 AM ET
  • Neel Kashkari Speaks
    5:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Wednesday
  • John C. Williams Speaks
    3:30 AM ET
  • MBA Mortgage Applications
    7:00 AM ET
  • International Trade in Goods
    8:30 AM ET
  • Pending Home Sales Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    10:30 AM ET
  • State Street Investor Confidence Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Patrick Harker Speaks
    11:15 AM ET
  • Neel Kashkari Speaks
    5:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Thursday
  • GDP
    8:30 AM ET

  • Jobless Claims
    8:30 AM ET
  • Corporate Profits
    8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report
    10:30 AM ET
  • James Bullard Speaks
    1:00 PM ET
  • Farm Prices
    3:00 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Friday
  • Personal Income and Outlays
    8:30 AM ET

  • Chicago PMI
    9:45 AM ET
  • Consumer Sentiment
    10:00 AM ET
  • Baker-Hughes Rig Count
    1:00 PM ET
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • State Street Investor Confidence Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Patrick Harker Speaks
    11:15 AM ET
  • Neel Kashkari Speaks
    5:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This market commentary is a matter of opinion and is for informational purposes only.  It is not intended as investment advice and does not address or account for individual investor circumstances.  Investment decisions should always be made based on the client’s specific financial needs, goals and objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance.  The statements contained herein are based solely upon the opinions of Telemus Capital, LLC.  All opinions and views constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. Information was obtained from third party sources, which we believe to be reliable, but not guaranteed.