Telemus Weekly Market Review

June 26 – June 30, 2017

The stock market finally endured some volatility this week, which resulted in a lower finish for the major indices. Relative weakness among technology stocks sent the Nasdaq Composite down 1.99% for the week while the S&P 500 surrendered 0.61%. The price-weighed Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week little changed down 0.21%.

The influential financial sector opened the week on a positive note, ending its four-session losing streak with a gain of 0.5%. However, negative performances from the heavily-weighted technology and health care groups mitigated the bullish influence of financials, leaving the benchmark index just a tick above its unchanged mark. Meanwhile, crude oil registered its third-consecutive win, climbing 0.8%.

Things got a bit more interesting on Tuesday, especially in the global bond market, where sovereign yields jumped after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi provided an upbeat assessment of Eurozone inflation and growth trends. The financial group outperformed, once again, amid a steepening of the yield curve, but the ten remaining sectors finished in the red with the technology group pacing the retreat.

The midweek session brought some relief as investors bought the dip and put the S&P 500 back at its flat line for the week. The financials and technology sectors led the charge, but strength was broad-based with nine sectors settling in the green. The improvement in risk sentiment came after the ECB said that Mr. Draghi’s Tuesday remarks were misinterpreted as hawkish while they were meant to strike a balance. However, longer-dated Treasuries and German bunds held their ground.

The relief rally didn’t last long as the market reversed and set a fresh low for the week on Thursday. The technology sector fell to heavy profit-taking, dropping 1.8%. Selling was broad-based with only the financials and energy spaces escaping the session with wins. Banks underpinned the financial group after the Federal Reserve approved the capital plans of all 34 banks required to partake in the annual stress test. Thursday also saw more selling in the global bond market. Treasuries tumbled in a curve-steepening trade while German bunds slid following hotter than expected inflation data out of Germany.

NIKE surged more than 10.0% after beating earnings expectations, which helped keep the market above water. Friday’s session featured a weak rebound in the broader market, as financials, health care, and technology struggled.

The fed funds futures market still points to the December FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 54.4%, up from last week’s 51.3%. The benchmark 10 year Treasury note closed at 2.30% on Friday up almost 15 basis points from last weeks close.

Crude oil rallied on better news regarding U.S. stockpiles gaining over 7% for the week to close at $46.33 on Friday in NYMEX trading.

July 3 – July 7 Economic Calendar

  • Monday
  • James Bullard Speaks
    4:35 AM ET
  • Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
    8:30 AM ET
  • PMI Manufacturing Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending
    10:00 AM ET
  • FOMC Minutes
    2:00 PM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • Jerome Powell Speaks
    10:00 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    11:00 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Stanley Fischer Speaks
    7:30 PM ET
  • Tuesday
  • July 4th Holiday
    Markets Closed

  • Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
    8:30 AM ET
  • PMI Manufacturing Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending
    10:00 AM ET
  • FOMC Minutes
    2:00 PM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • Jerome Powell Speaks
    10:00 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    11:00 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Stanley Fischer Speaks
    7:30 PM ET
  • Wednesday
  • MBA Mortgage Applications
    7:00 AM ET
  • Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
    8:30 AM ET
  • Redbook
    8:55 AM ET
  • Factory Orders
    10:00 AM ET
  • Gallup US ECI
    2:00 PM ET
  • FOMC Minutes
    2:00 PM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • Jerome Powell Speaks
    10:00 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    11:00 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Stanley Fischer Speaks
    7:30 PM ET
  • Thursday
  • John C. Williams Speaks
    4:05 AM ET

  • Challenger Job-Cut Report
    7:30 AM ET
  • ADP Employment Report
    8:15 AM ET
  • International Trade
    8:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims
    8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup Good Jobs Rate
    8:30 AM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • Jerome Powell Speaks
    10:00 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    11:00 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Stanley Fischer Speaks
    7:30 PM ET
  • Friday
  • Employment Situation
    8:30 AM ET

  • EIA Natural Gas Report
    10:30 AM ET
  • Baker-Hughes Rig Count
    1:00 PM ET
  • ISM Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Construction Spending
    10:00 AM ET
  • FOMC Minutes
    2:00 PM ET
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • PMI Services Index
    9:45 AM ET
  • Jerome Powell Speaks
    10:00 AM ET
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    11:00 AM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
  • Stanley Fischer Speaks
    7:30 PM ET

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This market commentary is a matter of opinion and is for informational purposes only.  It is not intended as investment advice and does not address or account for individual investor circumstances.  Investment decisions should always be made based on the client’s specific financial needs, goals and objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance.  The statements contained herein are based solely upon the opinions of Telemus Capital, LLC.  All opinions and views constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. Information was obtained from third party sources, which we believe to be reliable, but not guaranteed.